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A New Poll Shows Justin Trudeau Would Lose The Election If It Were Held Today

The Conservatives maintain 37% of the popular vote.
Staff Writer
A New Poll Shows Justin Trudeau Would Lose The Election If It Were Held Today

With the next Canadian election only four months away, Justin Trudeau's Liberal government has to gain ground in key areas if they hope to win the election. 

According to the latest Ipsos polling, the Libs are trailing Andrew Scheer's Conservatives by 5%. In other words, if the election was today, the Conservatives would win the popular vote, maintaining a 37% favour among Canadians. 

This is bad news for a currently embattled Liberal government who must now scramble to make up for lost ground. Trudeau's government currently maintains 32% of the popular vote. In the coming months, expect election talk to ramp up from all the major political parties, as some 28% of Canadians are still undecided. 

Roughly 10% of Canadians polled were open to voting for another party. With the NDP maintaining 18% and the Greens at 6%, it's unlikely that Canadians will see a new political party come to power this election cycle.

The clock is ticking on Justin Trudeau and his Liberals who are now seeing their grasp on Canada's collective consciousness slip away. When elected in 2015, Trudeau gained nearly 40% of the popular vote and his party won 184 seats in the House of Commons. 

With scandals dogging him and seeds of mistrust being sown, Trudeau is going to have to pull out all the stops if he wants to win a second term as Canada's Prime Minister.

However, he has one major obstacle — Andrew Scheer.

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Despite being not quite as charismatic as his opponent, Scheer has come out ahead as Canada's favoured choice. Say what you will about his potentially regressive politics but Scheer and his Tories seem to have gained the population's trust. 

With 37% of the popular vote already locked down, the Conservatives also maintain the popular vote in every province but Quebec. In Atlantic Canada, the Tories have over 40% of the popular vote. In Alberta, it's well over 50%. 

Though it's still early, these numbers indicate that Trudeau is about to be in the fight of his life. In the coming months, we're anticipating a heated political showdown unlike any before seen in Canada.

What can Trudeau do to repair the damage? Only time will tell. 

It's certain that we're about to see the Liberal's best effort to maintain their hold on Canada's parliament. 

Buckle up, Canada, it's going to be a long four months. 

To read the latest Ipsos polling data, click here.

Also, please read Global's latest report on polling numbers, here.

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