The Government Says Quebec's Outbreak Peak Could Be In Just A Few Weeks

There could be between 1,263 and 8,860 deaths by the end of April.
Senior Editor
COVID-19 Outbreak Peak In Quebec Could Be In Just A Few Weeks

After many questions and a hesitant response from Dr. Arruda, public health officials have released their scenarios for the COVID-19 outbreak in Quebec, including the date of a projected peak and the number of expected deaths by the end of April. Dr. Richard Massé, Quebec public health advisor, and Yvan Gendron, Quebec under-Minister of Health and Social Services, presented two models, one optimistic and one pessimistic. The optimistic model predicts 29,212 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the province and 1,263 deaths — the pessimistic: 59,845 cases with 8,860 deaths.

The famous peak of the curve could occur around April 18.

"According to the different experts consulted, a plateau should be reached around April 18, then a decrease should be observed at an estimated rate," a document reads.

"It is important to note that this estimate is preliminary and that it will have to be revised with the arrival of new information."

But it nonetheless offers Quebec residents a glimpse of what the future may hold. 

That doesn't mean life will immediately return to normal, however.

"Yes social life and economic life must resume, and then we must do it gradually," said Dr. Massé.

It can't be "all of a sudden," he continued, "not like saying, 'Well, now, we're letting it all go.' Because we are going to have a return of the curve, and then it will go up again."

[rebelmouse-image 26885816 photo_credit="Government of Quebec" expand=1 original_size="1037x659"] Government of Quebec

[rebelmouse-image 26885817 photo_credit="Government of Quebec" expand=1 original_size="1040x656"] Government of Quebec

"It takes a great deal of discipline, and then we will no longer do things the way they used to be [...] in certain sectors, certain activities, the notion of distancing will have to be present."

Both Massé and Gendron stressed, however, that these scenarios could change as the situation develops.

But, Massé said, the quick intervention by the government to address the outbreak and the public's adherence to social distancing guidelines are encouraging signs.

[rebelmouse-image 26885818 photo_credit="Assembl\u00e9e Nationale du Qu\u00e9bec | Website" expand=1 original_size="1030x561"] Assemblée Nationale du Québec | Website

"If people maintain the attitude they have had to date, we have had some fairly significant results, a success, we should say, to date, and we must not let up on them."

As of April 7, Quebec has 9,340 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 15 deaths.

Stay tuned for more news.

Thomas MacDonald
Senior Editor
Thomas is MTL Blog's Senior Editor. He lives in Saint-Henri and loves it so much that he named his cat after it. On weekdays, he's publishing stories, editing and helping to manage MTL Blog's team of amazing writers. His beats include the STM, provincial and municipal politics and Céline Dion. On weekends, you might run into him brunching at Greenspot, walking along the Lachine Canal or walking Henri the cat in Parc Sir-George-Étienne-Cartier.