Quebec may be reopening but we're not out of the woods yet. COVID-19 scenarios released Wednesday by the Institut national de santé publique (INSPQ) show what could happen if we don't strictly follow social distancing rules. The INSPQ notes that, right now, the number of deaths and hospitalizations is stable or decreasing across the province.\nBut we could end up with a second peak as soon as July if the public only has a weak adherence to "measures in place to prevent the transmission of the virus, [such as] two-metre distancing, wearing a face-covering, washing hands, installing Plexiglas in shops, [and] isolating symptomatic people."\nFor the Great Montreal area, the INSPQ produced two scenarios.\nOne scenario outlines what its experts think could happen if "60-80% of deconfined social contacts are protected and 75-90% of symptomatic cases are isolated."\nThe other looks at what it could mean if "0-40% of deconfined social contacts are protected" and just "60-75% of symptomatic cases are isolated."\nIn the latter scenario, "low adherence" to public health rules and recommendations "could lead to an increase in hospitalizations during the month of July."\nAn accompanying graph shows hospitalizations in Greater Montreal increasing in June before accelerating in July.\nINSPQ\n"Strong adherence," meanwhile, "could lead to a decrease in hospitalizations based on 50% of the predictions and an increase in hospitalizations based on 50% of the predictions."\nThe median line on that graph shows hospitalizations gradually decreasing through summer.\nINSPQ\nThe INSPQ forecasts a similar pattern for deaths in the two scenarios.\n"Weak adherence could lead to an increase in deaths during the month of July."\nWhile "strong adherence could lead to a decrease in deaths based on 50% of predictions and an increase in deaths based on 50% of predictions."\nINSPQ\nINSPQ\n"Since the March confinement," the Institute explains, "contact has been restricted by several individual and collective protective measures to prevent transmission of the virus.\n"With a gradual deconfinement, contacts resume, some protected and some unprotected, depending on the percentage of adherence to the protective measures."\n📉 Alors qu’un assouplissement des mesures de confinement se poursuit au Québec, des experts de l’INSPQ et de l'@universitelaval ont produit un troisième portrait modélisé de l’évolution de la #COVID19 https://t.co/kXS5ASkwGf— INSPQ (@INSPQ) May 28, 2020\nThe report concludes by declaring that "a return to the pre-containment level of contacts cannot be envisaged for the time being while the virus is still circulating, hence the importance of maintaining obstacles to its transmission through the implementation of individual and collective measures."\nIt will be up to individual Montrealers to determine the path of the pandemic this summer.\nThis article's cover image is used for illustrative purposes only.