On October 16, the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) released new data projecting different ways COVID-19 could evolve in the province during the second wave — and it looks like Quebecers need to do more to stop coronavirus cases from rising. \nThe report presents three possible scenarios: the first, called Scenario 0 (S0), is a hypothetical analysis of what could have occurred if the government had not put additional measures in place in red zones for the month of October. \nThe second scenario, called Scenario 1 (S1), makes projections based on the current situation with the red-zone restrictions presently in place.\nThe third scenario (S3) projects what could happen if we reduced our physical contacts by 25% in addition to current restrictions.\nEditor's Choice: Here Are All Of Quebec's Rules For Halloween This Year\n\nWhat if there was no partial-lockdown in October?\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Jerome Cid | Dreamstime\n \n \n \nAccording to the report, if no red-zone restrictions were implemented in October, "new hospitalizations and deaths would have exceeded the rates achieved in the first wave before the holidays."\nBy November, the number of new hospitalizations would exceed the first-wave record. And, by December, the number of new deaths would exceed the first-wave record, it says.\nNew cases in Greater Montreal could have reached approximately 3,600 per day by November, and the death rate could have reached around 80 new deaths per day by the end of December, the data shows.\nSince measures have been put in place, the province's death toll has remained under 25 new deaths per day. Counts have remained under 1,400 new cases per day in Quebec, but the data warns they could continue to rise if precautions are not taken.\n\nWhat if we carry on with current measures?\n View this post on Instagram . À bientôt les copains 😿😽 A post shared by Bar de Courcelle (@bardecourcelle) on Oct 6, 2020 at 11:58am PDT\n\nEven with the measures put in place by the government until October 28, S1 graphs show that — despite a "significant flattening of the curve" — cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will continue to rise, albeit more slowly.\nNew cases in Greater Montreal could reach 1,600 or more per day by late December, early January.\nDeaths, however, are projected to remain under 20 per day, but the data warns they could begin increasing toward the end of the year.\n\nWhat if we reduce social contacts by 25 percent?\n View this post on Instagram A post shared by Christian Dube (@christian.dube.sante) on Oct 8, 2020 at 6:38pm PDT\n\nQuebec Health Minister Christian Dubé said in a press conference on October 16 that this scenario — which involves keeping current measures plus reducing physical contacts by 25% — seems like the "ideal" method of breaking the second wave.\nAnd according to the report, this could "stabilize" the pandemic.\nThough the virus would not be completely eliminated by January, hospitalizations, deaths and cases could plateau or decline by the end of the year. \nBy January, new cases in Greater Montreal could be less than half of the projections based on current measures.\nDubé explained that pre-COVID-19, Quebecers had approximately seven to eight social contacts per day. With current measures, social contacts have been reduced to five and six contacts per day.\nAccording to INSPQ, removing one of four or five social contacts from your daily life would make a major difference in breaking the second wave.