• A snow in Montreal on Christmas Day is so far not a strong possibility.
  • One forecast predicts a mostly cloudy day on December 25 with a better chance of some snowfall late at night and into December 26.
  • Get the full Christmas Day forecast below.

Christmas is less than a month away, and though there are plenty of events in the Montreal area to get residents in the holiday spirit, it looks likes Christmas Day itself might disappoint. Montrealers should begin to prepare themselves now for the strong possibility that it won't be a picture-perfect holiday. So far, snow is not in the forecast for the city on December 25 — at least, not during the waking hours. AccuWeather predicts a "rather cloudy and colder" day reaching -5 C.

Snow is "possible" during the day, but right now there's only a 35% chance of precipitation. 

However, there's a 64% chance of snow late at night. AccuWeather indicates that 1.8 centimetres of snow could accumulate, though it's unclear just how late that could occur.

Promisingly, though, the site calls for snow on four of the seven days of the week of December 22 to 28, so there is at least a chance that a snowy Christmas could enter the forecast as meteorologists gain better insight into weather patterns in the coming month.

On December 26, the day after Christmas, AccuWeather predicts "occasional snow," totalling 4.1 cm in the morning and 3.6 cm in the evening.

Will this significant snowfall come a day early? Fingers crossed.

There is a better chance — 65% — that Montrealers could see snow as they welcome the new year.

Though it looks like it will be mostly sunny during the day of December 31, there could be "periods of snow" in the evening, AccuWeather indicates.  

To find a snowy-ish Christmas, head to Quebec City, where residents could see "flurries" in the morning of December 25 before they give way to "intervals of clouds and sunshine."

Will Montreal have a White Christmas? That's harder to tell.

The actual definition of a "White Christmas" has nothing to do with snowfall, but rather the mere presence of snow on the ground.

AccuWeather predicts that 7.9 cm of snow will fall one week before Christmas on December 18.

Temperatures will remain below freezing between then and Christmas Eve, December 24, when, hopefully, a high of 2 C won't melt everything on the ground.

White Christmas calculations from the government of Canada are more encouraging.

Using 63 years of historical weather data, Environment Canada has put together a chart indicating the probability of snow on the ground on December 25 in several municipalities across Canada.

Historically in Montreal, there is a 70% chance of snow accumulation on Christmas Day. 

Moreover, Montreal had what Environment Canada calls 25 "perfect Christmases" between 1955 and 2007.

You can explore all the historical data from Environment Canada on its website here.

The AccuWeather forecast is available here.

Stay tuned for updates to the Christmas Day forecast!

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