This Is What The 'Epidemic Curve' Looks Like For Montreal Right Now

Public health officials have said that the region is approaching its peak.
Senior Editor
This Is What The 'Epidemic Curve' Looks Like For Montreal Right Now
  • The Institut national de santé public (INSPQ) continuously updates graphs on its website that illustrate the progress of the pandemic in Quebec.
  • Santé Montréal also posts its own "epidemic curve" for the region, showing the number of new and cumulative cases for each day.

The province is approaching its projected outbreak peak. On April 7, public health officials released two scenarios for the pandemic in Quebec, forecasting an April 18 climax in the number of confirmed cases. They stressed that this projection was subject to change, but Premier Legault has remained optimistic, explaining Friday that the number of cases "should decrease" after a few days of additional increases.

On April 8, Regional Public Health Director Dr. Mylène Drouin explained that the peak could arrive sooner in Montreal.

The outbreak curve for the region shows five straight days of decreases in the number of new cases between April 6 and April 11 before a slight uptick on April 12.

Both Legault and Drouin have said that they have seen evidence of stabilization, particularly in the number of individuals in intensive care.

Residents will be watching eagerly for the final dip in the curve that could mean steady decreases are on the way.

The outbreak curve and peak could be considered benchmarks for the progress of the pandemic and indicative of the success of authorities' responses.

The effort to "flatten the curve" has even become a local viral sensation.

In Quebec, the Institut national de santé publique (INSPQ) plots the total number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in graphs on its website.

Santé Montréal continuously updates its own epidemic curve for the region.

This is what the curve looks like as of April 13.

[rebelmouse-image 26885738 photo_credit="Sant\u00e9 Mont\u00e9al" expand=1 original_size="1255x488"] Santé Montéal

Note that data is incomplete for April 12.

The region, including the metropolis and on-island suburbs, counts 6,393 of Quebec's total of 13,557 as of April 13.

This graph from the INSPQ shows the cumulative number of cases in the province, including active cases, recoveries, and deaths.

[rebelmouse-image 26885739 photo_credit="INSPQ" expand=1 original_size="1200x800"] INSPQ

This graph shows the cumulative number of deaths each day.

[rebelmouse-image 26885740 photo_credit="INSPQ" expand=1 original_size="1200x800"] INSPQ

And here is the number of current hospitalizations:

[rebelmouse-image 26885741 photo_credit="INSPQ" expand=1 original_size="1200x800"] INSPQ

"Those discharged on the day of analysis are counted," the INSPQ website explains. In addition, "persons in intensive care are included in the total hospitalizations."

Even if the number of cases in the province begins to decrease, however, Legault has suggested that social distancing measures could persist through the summer.

"You have to get used to the two-metre rule in Quebec. That will take months."

Stay tuned for more news.

Thomas MacDonald
Senior Editor
Thomas MacDonald is a Senior Editor for MTL Blog focused on Montreal public transit and is based in Montreal, Quebec.
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