"Roll up the Rim" is one of the most exciting parts of February. Nothing compares to the moment before you roll up the rim of your morning coffee, anticipating for a moment that you just might win a prize.
As it turns out, some provinces are more endowed with prizes than others. The Tim Hortons prizes are alloted per "region," which encompass various provinces.
TL;DR In Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, the Northwest Territories, Yukon, & Nunavut, your chances of winning a prize are statistically higher than in the rest of Canada. In Ontario, on the other hand, you are slightly less statistically likely to win a prize.
In the Roll Up The Rim To Win "Terms and Conditions," they detail which prizes are located where, and how many cups each "region" gets. These "regions" encompass one or more provinces, depending on population size.
Through this, we can figure out what the chances of winning certain prizes are. For example, there are 5 cars available to win in the Maritimes, and Tim Hortons estimates that they will distribute a little over 30 million cups. This means for each cup you purchase, you have a 0.00000017% chance of winning a car. In another region, which encompasses Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Yukon, Nunavut and the Northwest territories, you have a 0.00000024% chance of winning a car.
On the other hand, in Ontario, which has about 38% of the population and half the prizes available to win, you are statistically the least likely to win a prize. This is because there will also be the most cups distributed in Ontario. So, whereas the national average for winning a $50 gift card is 0.00019%, in Ontario this chance is 0.00018%. This isn't a huge difference, but it can definitely affect your chances of winning!
The prize distribution is also skewed in terms of population size. In the Maritimes, which has about 6% of the total Canadian population, there are about ten percent of each prize (11 out of 100 prepaid CIBC cards, for example) available to win.
The chance of winning a prize in Quebec is, luckily, about equal to the national average. However, the province only has 12% of prizes despite also being home to 23% of the Canadian population.
Is anyone else thinking of moving to the Prairies or the Northwest Territories for a better chance of winning a car? Yeah, me neither.