Mark Carney's Liberals have won a minority in Canada's 2025 federal election

The Liberals are projected to win Canada's 2025 federal election, giving Mark Carney his first election victory. The 60-year-old has also won his riding of Nepean, Ontario.

As of around 11 p.m. Monday night, CTV News was projecting a Liberal minority government. As of 4 p.m. Tuesday, CBC News is also projecting a minority for the Liberals.

As of around 4 p.m. on Tuesday, the Liberals are leading with 169 confirmed seats and 43.7% of the votes, enough to beat out the Conservatives but still short of the 172 seats needed for a majority.

In total, there are 343 seats up for grabs in the House of Commons, and any party needs at least 172 to govern without needing support from others.

Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are set to form the Official Opposition after a strong showing in provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta. They are projected to win about 41% of the votes.

Just one riding remain contested as of Tuesday afternoon — Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge in B.C. — where Conservative incumbent Marc Dalton is leading with just seven polls left to report. If Dalton wins, the conservatives will have 144 seats in the next Parliament.

But Poilievre's riding of Carleton won't be one of them. In a surprising twist, Poilievre lost the riding he's held since 2004 to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.

The Liberals also flipped NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's Burnaby Central riding, leading Singh to announce he would resign as party leader.

Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May was re-elected in her Vancouver Island riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, but co-leader Jonathan Pedneault failed to secure a Montreal seat.

Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, meanwhile, has won his seat in the Beloeil—Chambly riding.

Congratulatory social media messages from politicians across Canada have already started pouring in, including a post from Montreal mayor Valérie Plante.

Final seat counts and voter turnout numbers are still coming in. Verification by Elections Canada is still underway, with official results expected later this week.

This story has been updated.

You can read more about the projected election results, Mark Carney's dramatic victory speech and more at MTL Blog's election hub.