François Legault's CAQ Lost Support In A New Poll But Its Lead Is Still Pretty Enormous

Is Quebec on track for a baby blue wave? François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has dipped in popularity but is still on track to dominate in the upcoming Quebec election, a new poll shows.

The poll, by Léger for the Journal de Montréal, TVA Nouvelles and QUB radio, reached 1,041 eligible-to-vote Quebecers via an online survey between June 17 and 19.

Of the 888 participants who said they had made up their mind, 41% supported the CAQ, 5% fewer than in a May poll but more than double the number of voters who said they'd cast a ballot for the runner-up Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), which had 18% support.

15% of those 888 voters planned to vote for the Parti conservateur du Québec and 14% backed Québec solidaire. The Parti québécois trailed with 9% support. 3% of voters intended to cast a ballot for another party.

36% told Léger it was possible they'd change their vote before the October election, however.

And despite the party's slip in the polls, the Legault government still got a mostly positive review from poll participants. 57% of the 1,041 respondents said they were very or mostly satisfied with Legault's government.

The identity of the CAQ's base becomes most clear in Léger's breakdown of the party's supporters by age, language and location.

70% of respondents above the age of 54 and 66% of francophones said they were satisfied with the Legault government. Geographically, contentment with the government was the strongest outside of the Montreal and Quebec City areas: 67% of respondents from the rest of the province were happy or mostly happy with the administration, compared to 58% in Quebec City and 48% in the island metropolis and its suburbs.

Quebecers between the ages of 18 and 34 were more split. That age group was least likely to be satisfied and most likely to be dissatisfied with the CAQ government, but only seven points separated those figures, 42% and 49% respectively.