Quebec could face an early winter "shock" this year, according to a new weather forecast
If you've been enjoying Montreal's unusually warm fall, don't get too comfortable. Winter might hit harder (and earlier) than expected.
While we've been seeing weather temperatures that are 7–10 degrees above seasonal norms in recent weeks, southern Quebec's thermometers could soon take a sharp plunge.
According to MétéoMédia's first look at the 2025–2026 winter season, Quebecers could experience a "weather shock" around mid-November as the province transitions abruptly from mild conditions to freezing temperatures. Meteorologist Réjean Ouimet says the pattern shift could happen quickly, bringing an early taste of winter after a stretch of above-normal warmth.
"With a mild fall, the arrival of winter feels like more of a shock than usual because we're starting from a higher baseline," Ouimet noted.
So, what about the rest of the season?
While December could start off colder than usual, Ouimet says not every month will feel like the deep freeze. January is expected to bring a few milder periods across southern Quebec, especially around Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley, though temperatures should still hover near seasonal averages overall.
Snowfall could be plentiful in December, with storms tracking in from the Great Lakes and moving along the St. Lawrence. Northern regions like Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean and Abitibi–Témiscamingue are forecast to see their first major accumulations earlier than normal.
Historically, winter weather tends to set in around November 29 in Quebec City, December 12 in Montreal, and November 17 in Val-d'Or. By the solstice, most regions have already received between 50 and 100 cm of snow — a benchmark that could easily be reached again this year.
Ouimet notes that La Niña could play a key role in shaping this winter, bringing colder air masses down from the northwest and a mix of deep freezes and sudden thaws.
MétéoMédia will release its full winter forecast on November 26, offering a clearer picture of what's ahead. But for now, it's safe to say: those patio days are numbered.
