This province is the most willing to leave Canada if Carney wins — and it's not Quebec

With the 2025 federal election just weeks away, talk of national unity (or a lack thereof) is heating up — and a new poll shows that one province is suddenly leading the charge when it comes to wanting out of Canada if the Liberals win.

Surprisingly, it's not Alberta. Not even Quebec. It's Saskatchewan.

According to a new Angus Reid Institute survey, 33% of people in Saskatchewan say they'd vote to separate from Canada if Mark Carney and the Liberals win the April 28 election. That's more than in Alberta (30%) or even Quebec (also 30%), which are usually the provinces most associated with separatist sentiment.

The idea of Saskatchewan going solo — or possibly even south — might sound like a meme, but there's real political tension behind it. Every single federal seat in Saskatchewan is currently held by the Conservatives, and many in the province say they feel disconnected from the federal government. Only 26% of Saskatchewan residents feel their province is respected by the rest of Canada, and just 35% think they're treated fairly by Ottawa. Both numbers are well below the national averages of 52% and 62%, respectively.

That sense of alienation is strongest among Conservative voters — and they're not subtle about it. Across Canada, 40% of Conservative supporters say they'd at least consider leaving the country if the Liberals win. A chunk of those say they’d even be open to joining the United States.

Nationally, one in five Canadians say they'd vote to leave Canada in a post-Carney world. So while Alberta's always loud about it, and Quebec has the history, Saskatchewan may just be the province to watch if this election ends with another Liberal government being elected.

The Angus Reid survey was conducted between March 28–31, 2025, with a representative sample of 2,131 Canadian adults.

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