‘It’s a cloud’: Sovereignty questions loom over Quebec firms as PQ leads the polls
Quebec's business community is on alert as polls show the separatist Parti Québécois seizing a firm lead heading into election day, with some sensing early jitters over the prospect of sovereignty.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum within his first mandate, though not before U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.
"It's a cloud. We have uncertainty on tariffs. We have uncertainty on counter-tariffs," said Sébastien Lachaine, Quebec director at lobbying firm Sussex Strategy.
"The uncertainty of a referendum, even if the PQ is a minority, will add a cloud in the business community."
Lachaine said companies' concerns over the possibility of independence could dampen investment, discourage immigration and trigger a rise in interest rates on government bonds.
However, the PQ platform promises to lower corporate tax rates, an apparent boon for businesses in the province and part of a perceived rightward shift in the party's policies.
On Friday, a group of prominent Quebec business leaders called on the future government to "regain" the province's economic ambition and foster the conditions for entrepreneurship to flourish.
"The more wealth Quebec creates, the more choices it will have, the more capacity it will have to invest, to get through harder times, to finance its priorities, to decide its own fate," said billionaire Andrew Lutfy, chairman and CEO of fashion retailer Groupe Dynamite Inc.
"Today, Quebec finds itself uninvestable, or much less attractive than other markets around the world."
The group included Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. founder and executive chairman Alain Bouchard, Laurent Beaudoin — widely credited with turning Bombardier Inc. into a transportation giant in the late 20th century — and Paul Desmarais III, senior vice-president of Power Corp. of Canada.
The high-profile leaders stressed that the event where they delivered their message to hundreds of executives and entrepreneurs was a "non-partisan, non-political gathering." But the timing, days ahead of an election where the PQ is poised to win, was hard to miss.
"Businesses need to have clarity," Lachaine said. "They are waiting to be reassured."
Worries over referendum rumblings would not be unprecedented.
In the four years between Parti Québécois founder René Lévesque's election in 1976 and the 1980 referendum on sovereignty-association, about 350 companies left the province and many more gutted their Montreal head offices. Some 200,000 residents also pulled up stakes, according to Statistics Canada.
In 1995, the narrow margin of the referendum vote — a 50.6 to 49.4 per cent split — left executives uneasy about the consequences for the provincial economy.
Recent polls show that support for independence — and for the PQ — hovers at around 30 per cent. In a fractured election battle with five major parties potentially poised to win seats, that threshold is still likely to translate to a win for the Parti Québécois, if not a yes on sovereignty.
Millions of voters across Quebec are casting their ballots on Monday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 5, 2026.
Companies in this story: (TSX:ATD, TSX:BBD.B, TSX:POW, TSX:GRGD)
By Christopher Reynolds | Copyright 2026, The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
