Royal LePage has released its 2023 Canada housing price forecast showing some good news for prospective homebuyers. Across the country, median home prices are projected to drop by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. That could mean a whopping 12% average difference in median prices between Q1 of 2022 and Q1 2023.
The regional breakdowns show good news for Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, but a mixed bag everywhere else. Nationwide, prices could pick back up by the end of 2023, but still see an overall decline of 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, from $772,900 to $765,171, Royal LePage shows.
The Montreal and Toronto metro areas are both projected to see a 2% drop in overall housing prices between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, including a 2.5% dip in median single-family home prices, to $588,315 and $1,329,413, respectively.
The median price of a Montreal-area condo, meanwhile, could drop by 1.5%, to $421,383. The Toronto-area median condo price could actually jump to $701,243 by the end of 2023 (an increase of 1% compared to Q4 2022), but the single-family house price decrease could still offset that upward pressure on the overall market.
A chart showing Royal LePage's projected trajectory of housing prices in Canada between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023.Courtesy of Royal LePage
Royal LePage forecasts a similar trend in Greater Vancouver, where a 2% decrease in the median price of a single-family home (to $1,644,538) could drive an average 1% price decrease in the overall market despite a 1% year-over-year (Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2023) increase (to $747,299) in the median price of a condo.
Many smaller Canadian cities, including Calgary (1.5%), Edmonton (1%), Halifax (0.5%) and Ottawa (2%), could see a bump in aggregate housing prices (the average of Royal LePage's projected median single-family and condo prices) between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023.
Winnipeg and Region could see dips of 1% and 1.5%, respectively.