Canada House Prices Are Projected To Drop In 2023 — Montreal & Toronto Included

But just how long will that drop last?

Senior Editor
A single-family house with a Royal LePage "sold" sign on the front lawn.

A single-family house with a Royal LePage "sold" sign on the front lawn.

Royal LePage has released its 2023 Canada housing price forecast showing some good news for prospective homebuyers. Across the country, median home prices are projected to drop by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. That could mean a whopping 12% average difference in median prices between Q1 of 2022 and Q1 2023.

The regional breakdowns show good news for Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, but a mixed bag everywhere else. Nationwide, prices could pick back up by the end of 2023, but still see an overall decline of 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, from $772,900 to $765,171, Royal LePage shows.

The Montreal and Toronto metro areas are both projected to see a 2% drop in overall housing prices between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, including a 2.5% dip in median single-family home prices, to $588,315 and $1,329,413, respectively.

The median price of a Montreal-area condo, meanwhile, could drop by 1.5%, to $421,383. The Toronto-area median condo price could actually jump to $701,243 by the end of 2023 (an increase of 1% compared to Q4 2022), but the single-family house price decrease could still offset that upward pressure on the overall market.

A chart showing Royal LePage's projected trajectory of housing prices in Canada between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023. A chart showing Royal LePage's projected trajectory of housing prices in Canada between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023.Courtesy of Royal LePage

Royal LePage forecasts a similar trend in Greater Vancouver, where a 2% decrease in the median price of a single-family home (to $1,644,538) could drive an average 1% price decrease in the overall market despite a 1% year-over-year (Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2023) increase (to $747,299) in the median price of a condo.

Many smaller Canadian cities, including Calgary (1.5%), Edmonton (1%), Halifax (0.5%) and Ottawa (2%), could see a bump in aggregate housing prices (the average of Royal LePage's projected median single-family and condo prices) between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023.

Winnipeg and Region could see dips of 1% and 1.5%, respectively.

Thomas MacDonald
Senior Editor
Thomas MacDonald is a Senior Editor for MTL Blog focused on Montreal public transit and is based in Montreal, Quebec.
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