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Quebec Weather Is Heading Into An October Chill Before We Plunge Into Icy Hell

The cold will be back to bother us once more.

Downtown Montreal in the fall.

Downtown Montreal in the fall.

It's officially fall, and that means the weather in Quebec is only getting colder — well, mostly. Although the winter is predicted to be quite chilly, this early stage of autumn is staying relatively warm. Enjoy it while it lasts, as the inevitable winter cold inches ever closer.

"October will be cooler than September. That's no surprise; it always is," Environment Canada meteorologist Peter Kimbell told MTL Blog over the phone. Montreal typically gets 1.8 centimetres of snow in October, Kimbell continued, so we can enjoy the outdoors for a little longer, save for a few snow flurries.

"There's a bit of a hint that the month may be a bit warmer than normal," Kimbell hedged, but emphasized that it's hard for meteorologists to confidently predict weather patterns more than a week out. This is why Environment Canada and other weather sources typically provide only seven days of forecasts at a time.

But trends are trends, and the Old Farmer's Almanac is pretty sure it's got things figured out. The Almanac predicts a mild, somewhat rainy October, with an average temperature of 9 degrees. Not bad, compared to what's coming in the later months: the Almanac describes this winter as "unreasonably cold".

MétéoMédia's monthly prediction for October, which relies on historical data, comes to a similar conclusion: highs no greater than 17 degrees and lows hovering around 8 degrees until the latter half of the month.

In terms of precipitation, it's even harder to be certain about what the next weeks will hold, Kimbell said. The models used to make predictions with lower accuracy can extend further into the future, but only by about two weeks. From where we're standing, it's hard to know just how much snow we'll be buried in come December.

In the next week, including the first few days of October, Kimbell says the weather will be "normal," with a high of 18 and a low of 8, which he says is average for this time of year.

"It will get colder during the month, as it always does."

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