3 (More) Pieces Of Bad News For Aspiring Homeowners In Canada

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has a lot to say, and not much good.

Staff Writer
An aerial view of a Montreal neighbourhood in the fall.

An aerial view of a Montreal neighbourhood in the fall.

Aspiring Quebec homeowners are facing a depressing future on the real estate front, as the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has released its latest predictions for the housing market in the months and years to come. Unfortunately for Canadians, buying a new home is more challenging than ever since the onset of the pandemic.

High home prices aren't decreasing soon

The CMHC admits that home prices are decreasing nationally, but they remain elevated in certain markets — including Quebec's.

"Higher prices combined with increased mortgage rates and a limited supply of new housing mean that homeownership will be even less affordable in 2023," the report reads.

"We don’t anticipate the average national price to return to pre-pandemic levels but expect the price drop to bottom out sometime in 2023," the CMHC continues.

"Price decreases are largely the result of the negative impacts of higher mortgage rates as well as slower income and job growth. These factors make it harder for potential buyers to buy a home."

New homes? Not a chance

The limited supply of new housing projects — technically referred to as "housing starts," meaning the construction of a new home — is evidenced by both CMHC research and the work of other industry experts.

"We anticipate housing starts to decline in 2023 and remain well below the levels seen in recent years," the report explains, meaning that the supply of new houses for purchase or rent is not growing to match demand.

Quebec is especially struggling

The provinces expected to see the most significant declines in housing starts are "Ontario, British Columbia and Québec," the CMHC revealed.

This means Montreal's housing market is especially suffering when compared to other cities, but at least Toronto and Vancouver aren't getting off too easy either.

Okay, fine, one piece of good news

The CMHC says that starting in 2023 or 2024, prices will rise, but sales will, too.

"Mortgage rates are expected to become more affordable after 2023," the report explains. "These changes, along with renewed growth in income and employment will support housing demand and supply."

That means in the next few years, things might get easier. But in the near future, Canadian prospective homeowners are simply out of luck.

Willa Holt
Staff Writer
Willa Holt is a Creator for MTL Blog, often found covering weird and wonderful real estate and local politics from her home base in Montreal.