Here's when the first snowfall of the season could hit Montreal and other parts of Quebec

Warm weather is in the cards for the beginning of October in Quebec, but don’t get too used to summer-like days. Temperatures are expected to drop abruptly — and soon. At least, that's what some forecasts suggest, leaving little time before the first snowfall ushers in lasting cold throughout the province, including the Greater Montreal area.

In addition to a discouraging forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which predicts plenty of rain, wind and early frosts for this first full month of autumn, MétéoMédia says lasting cold generally sets in throughout Quebec as of October 21, with maximum temperatures below 10 C and minimums below freezing.

To make matters worse, the weather network notes that la belle province typically receives an average of 1.3 snowfalls during the month of October.

But when specifically will snow fall this year?

"It's hard to predict the first snowfall in October in Quebec. In fact, the far north of la belle province can receive snowflakes during the summer," writes MétéoMédia's Francis Briere.

However, based on data compiled between 1991 and 2020, MétéoMédia says Montreal tends to get its first snowfall on October 27. In Quebec City, the first snowflakes appear even earlier on October 20. That said, models indicate that the white stuff should arrive a little later than usual this year.

Meanwhile, in the north, certain regions have already seen flakes fall and more could come soon. Témiscamingue, in particular, received snow on September 7.

"A succession of small systems is anticipated over the next few days in Quebec. Next weekend, the passage of a disturbance accompanied by a front could generate precipitation. For northern Quebec, snowflakes are possible," MétéoMédia says.

"With the presence of a trough that would allow temperatures to drop, the mountainous areas of Saguenay, northern Quebec, Gaspésie and even Estrie could see the landscape change. A small carpet could cover the ground, but the models do not predict substantial accumulations."

You can find a map with the average first snowfall in various parts of Quebec on the MétéoMédia website.

It's worth noting that October "is a particularly unpredictable month: on average, the province experiences seven temperature inversions," the weather network points out. As a result, Quebec has to juggle between mild and cold temperatures on several occasions, in the space of a few hours."

Regardless of what Mother Nature brings our way this month, it's clear that Montrealers should savour the next few days, which should see highs around 20 C.

This story was adapted from the article "La première neige risque de tomber aussi tôt qu'en octobre au Québec : voici quoi savoir," which was originally published on Narcity Québec by Josianne Desjardins.