Will Montreal have a white Christmas this year? Here's what this new forecast says
Fingers crossed. 🤞❄️
There's something about waking up on Christmas morning to a fresh layer of snow outside that just makes the holidays feel complete. In Montreal, it isn't always a guarantee. Some years, the city gets a snowy postcard scene, and other years, Christmas Day is grey, slushy or even rainy.
So what about this year?
The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its 2026 white Christmas forecast, and there's good news for anyone hoping for a snowy holiday. The long-range weather forecast is calling for a white Christmas in southern Quebec, which includes Montreal and Quebec City.
What counts as a white Christmas?
It's not as simple as seeing a few flakes on December 25.
According to the Almanac, which uses the definition set by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a white Christmas means having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. That's about 2.5 centimetres. It doesn't actually have to snow that day, as long as there's snow on the ground.
What December could look like
The Almanac's December forecast for southern Quebec gives a little more detail about what’s coming.
Overall, it's predicting a fairly mild month, with an average temperature of -2°C, about three degrees above normal. Precipitation is expected to be slightly below average.
But the snow looks well-timed. The Almanac is calling for snowy periods with mild temperatures from December 15 to 26, right through the holidays. After that, it's predicting a mix of rain and snow from December 27 to 31, with temperatures turning cold just in time for New Year's Eve.
That would make for a pretty postcard-worthy Christmas, though it could also mean slippery roads for anyone travelling to see family.
How the rest of Canada is looking
Quebec isn't alone. The Almanac is predicting a white Christmas for much of the country this year.
The northern half of Quebec is also expected to see snow on the ground, along with Yukon, the Northwest Territories, Nunavut, northern Ontario, the northern Prairies and northern Newfoundland and Labrador.
Farther south, the picture is more mixed:
- Southern Ontario: A white Christmas in the west, and a chance of one in the east
- Atlantic Canada: A white Christmas in the west, and a chance of one in the east
- Southern Prairies: A white Christmas
- Southern B.C.: A chance of a white Christmas
- Northern B.C. coast: No white Christmas
How much should you trust it?
The Almanac makes its long-range predictions months in advance, using a combination of solar science, climatology and meteorology, based on a formula that dates back to its founding in 1792. The publication says its forecasts are traditionally about 80% accurate, though meteorologists have long been skeptical of predictions this far out.
So it's probably best to take it as a fun preview rather than a promise, and to keep an eye on the regular forecast as Christmas gets closer.
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