Montreal could get dumped with snow this weekend — or dodge the storm completely

Yesterday, we learned that a weekend snowstorm was likely heading for Montreal. However, today's weather update makes things a little more complicated.

According to a new MétéoMédia forecast published Thursday morning, Montreal is sitting right on the edge of the storm's path. The city could see up to 10 cm of snow by Sunday, or the system could shift just a few kilometres south and leave us with barely anything.

"Even a minor shift in the system's path could completely change these numbers," MétéoMédia meteorologist Benoit Chartier wrote in the report. "If it dips slightly farther south, even by a few kilometres, it could largely miss the Montreal area and leave only a few centimetres behind."

Here's what we know

The storm will start brushing southern Quebec on Friday evening and continue through the weekend.

Areas along the U.S. border, like the Eastern Townships and parts of the Montérégie, could see up to 15 cm of snow. Areas in Vermont and New York State could see over 20 cm of the white stuff. As of now, Montreal and the Outaouais region are expected to get between 5 and 10 cm.

Regions north of Montreal, including the Laurentians and Lanaudière, will largely be spared, with accumulations under 5 cm.

Montreal sits right at the northern edge of the system's track, which leaves us with more of an uncertain forecast. MétéoMédia notes the storm is so sharply defined that Lacolle could get 15 cm while Sorel, just 100 km away, could see almost nothing.

It all comes down to a few kilometres

If the system tracks even slightly farther south than expected, Montreal could escape with just a few centimetres instead of the 5 to 10 cm currently forecast. That's why meteorologists are urging people to keep an eye on updates through Friday as the storm's path becomes clearer.

Environment Canada's latest forecast shows snow beginning Friday night, with cloudiness and a 30% chance of flurries on Saturday. By Sunday, there's a 60% chance of flurries before conditions clear early next week.

Montreal's weekend forecast

Thursday will be sunny with a high of −1°C, though wind chill will make it feel like −9°C later this afternoon.

Friday starts with increasing cloudiness and winds gusting up to 40 km/h in the morning. The high will be −2°C, with wind chill making it feel like −17°C in the morning. Snow moves in Friday night.

Saturday's high will be −5°C with a 30% chance of flurries during the day and 60% overnight.

Sunday remains cloudy with a 60% chance of flurries and a high of −1°C.

By Monday, the system clears out, bringing a mix of sun and cloud with a high of 1°C.