Fuel me once, shame on you. Fuel me twice… it'll cost you and every local driver a heck of a lot more. Although gas prices in Montreal hit a record high in June of $2.21/litre, motorists have enjoyed a respite of under $2/litre ever since. But things are about to change, warns gasoline price analyst Dan McTeague, who is also the man behind the curtain at GasWizard.ca.

"As temps drop, heating fuels derived from diesel will see increased price pressure leading to a likely 30- to 50-cent per litre hike for diesel and about half that increase for gasoline over the next several months," McTeague told MTL Blog.

That prediction would put pump prices at around $2.30/litre by January 2023. Two months after that McTeague said diesel in particular could cost a whopping $3/litre.

Gas prices have seen a steady incline over the past month, spiking four cents per day and jumping from $1.69 to $1.79/litre since November 2. Longer trends recorded by Gas Buddy show prices are up 21 cents from October's average of $1.61 and up 27 cents from last year's average of $1.54.

Monthly average gas prices in Montreal.Courtesy of Gas Buddy.

"Tightness in global supplies are outweighing nervousness over an economic slowdown," said McTeague.

"Taxes, reluctance by refiners to meet strong demand given Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) mandates, and an overall move to curb fossil fuels is leading to a shortage that’s now being reflected at the pumps," he added.

The threat of a recession is looming in Canada, but many gas producers are still reducing output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that natural gas imports from Canada have hit a significant low when compared to the country's exportation highs in the 2000s.