The Liberals Are Ahead In Quebec But Are Almost Even With The Conservatives Across Canada

We're just a few days away from finding out which party will have the next government and who will be prime minister and Canada's 2021 election race is heating up.

Justin Trudeau's Liberals are ahead in the polls in Quebec so far but are running a tight race against Erin O'Toole's Conservatives in national polls.

According to the latest projections from 338Canada, "a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data," the Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck, projected to claim 32.1% and 31.6% of the vote, respectively. But with a margin of error of around plus or minus 4% for both, the race is too close to call just yet.

In Quebec, meanwhile, the Liberals are ahead of everyone. 338 says they're currently projected to win 33% of the vote on average but shows they're only narrowly ahead of the Bloc Québécois.

Quebec's nationalist party has seen a slight bump in its vote projection, 338 shows. It's currently projected to win 30% of the provincial vote.

338 does not show if or how the controversy following a question at the English-language debate has or will affect these projections.

The site suggests that no matter who wins, it currently looks like the next government will likely be a minority government.