Quebec's Winter Weather Through 2024 Might Be Harsh — Here's Everything You Need To Know
Take everything with a grain of salt, but not the kind for icing roads.
Winter sets in over Lachine Canal in Montreal.
Snow and Canada are friends as old as time, with the return of crisp white coldness about as predictable as the rising and setting of the sun each day. But some publications believe, despite the limitations of even the most data-driven modern meteorology, that they can predict the winter weather across the country not only days, not only weeks, but months and months in advance.The Farmers' Almanac is perhaps the biggest standout in this category, putting out somewhat specific forecasts for months as far away as March of next year. We've taken a look at their predictions and compiled them here, so you can get a sense of what the most self-confident weathermen are thinking for the seasonal future of this country, despite persistent questions about their methodology.
The Farmers' Almanac's "time-tested weather formula" has revealed one vision of what winter will look like across Canada, from blustery beginnings to mid-season blizzards. It's also worth remembering that the Farmers' Almanac is "the oldest source of consecutively published weather forecasts, even longer than the National Weather Service."
Other meteorological services might heartily disagree with the Farmers' Almanac's formula, so it's up to you to decide how much faith to put into its near-mystical predictive strategies. As one Popular Mechanics article put it, "First, the Farmer’s Almanac—and its competitor the Old Farmer’s Almanac—is mostly full of crap. Second, there’s a good chance it’s right anyway."
What will Quebec weather be like in December 2023?
Although winter officially starts on December 21, the Farmers' Almanac says cold weather will begin to move in on December 1. "Yes," they admit, "predicting the weather that far in advance has its risks." (Among them inaccuracies that won't hold up to even a light winter wind.)
Environment Canada or MétéoMédia don't even pretend to try predicting the weather more than two weeks out. That's because it can be misleading to act like you know what the chaotic, multiply random weather will look like that far away. All these sites will do is give you average temperatures from historical records, which are arguably about as helpful as any of this Farmers' Almanac advice.
That said, the Farmers' Almanac predicts "traditional winter weather" will make a return this December, with very cold temperatures covering the western part of Canada. It's only British Columbia that will see "near-normal temperatures throughout the winter season."
The Farmers' Almanac doesn't mention Quebec in this section of its analysis, so one can only imagine that we're in for a sh*tshow too.
What will Quebec weather be like in January 2024?
Later in the season, the Farmers' Almanac calls for snow, especially around the Great Lakes region. "If you live or plan to visit areas around the Great Lakes, you should get your fill of snow as our forecast points to above-normal amounts," the Almanac writes.
Both of Canada's coasts will see a "mixed bag of wintry precipitation," a pretty harmless prediction that doesn't give us much to work with. B.C. will get a winter that is white and wet, with "temperatures just above and below the freezing mark."
The oft-maligned wintry mix will also haunt the Maritimes, Pacific Coast, Ontario and Quebec during the second week of January. This feels helpful… until you process that predicting "wintry mix across Canada during January" is about as useful as predicting that there will be dirt in the ground any other month of the year.
What will Quebec weather be like in February 2024?
A "wave of frigid air" will allegedly follow this storm, which is so far away from actually existing that you might as well also bet on a racehorse that hasn't even been conceived yet. Talking to CBC in 2019, a senior climatologist from Environment Canada said that the Almanac is about as accurate as your own best guess.
"They came out with their forecast now, but they had to prepare it probably eight months ago because of publication dates," the climatologist told CBC.
"So when you think about the fact that we can't even get it right tomorrow, and then when you're trying to get it right a year and a half in advance, it just really is the joke it is. I mean, they could be right by the law of averages, but there's just no science into it."
What will Quebec weather be like in March 2024?
Environment Canada's four-to-six-month historical forecast predicts higher-than-average temperatures across the country from January to March, with an 80% chance of higher temperatures across Hudson Bay.
MétéoMédia, for their part, notes that the polar vortex is becoming stronger and colder again, which is a surefire sign of the approach of winter. Does this say anything about March? No, not really, because that's too far away to predict accurately.
That said, though, it's worth remembering that there's a whole other season in between these two big contenders. "You don't go from summer to winter," the Environment Canada meteorologist told CBC in 2019. "Canadians, we ignore those transition seasons... but there's still a lot of weather to enjoy."
What is the Farmers' Almanac's predictive model?
It's kind of a mystery. The Farmers' Almanac, which has been releasing long-range forecasts since 1818, uses a formula whose details are known only to a figure cheekily called "Caleb Weatherbee," whose identity is shrouded in secrecy.
"Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting, in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers maintain that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate," the site reads.
A University of Illinois study referenced in that Popular Mechanics article from earlier found that the Farmers' Almanac was only about 52% accurate in its long-range analysis. Do with that information what you will.
This article's cover image was used for illustrative purposes only.
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