Legault Is Less Popular Than Ever But Looks Like The CAQ Will Still Crush Quebec's Election

Ahead of the Quebec election, Premier François Legault is less popular than any other point since he entered the post in 2018, according to the latest Angus Reid Institute (ARI) poll of premier approval ratings.

Only 43% of Quebecers polled in the September survey said they either approved (23%) or strongly approved (20%) of Legault's performance, fewer than in any of the ARI polls since December 2018.

Despite this widespread disapproval, the CAQ is still projected to sweep the election. QC125, an electoral analysis and prediction project, puts the likelihood of a CAQ majority at over 99%.

Legault isn't the most unpopular premier when compared to other provinces: he beats out Doug Ford, whose approval rating is 41%, and does much better than Manitoba's Heather Stefanson. Fewer than one in four of her constituents approve of her performance thus far.

The height of Legault's popularity during his time as premier came during the summer of 2020, according to ARI, when he achieved 77% approval as the COVID-19 pandemic reached its first peaks. Doug Ford experienced a similar (and similarly brief) upswing in popularity during the first summer of the pandemic, reaching 69% approval just before June.

If Legault's party is projected to maintain its majority despite dissatisfaction with his leadership, which party is set up to become the opposition? QC125 predicts that the popular vote will be fairly evenly split between the PLQ, the PCQ and Québec solidaire, with the Parti Québécois trailing just behind.

In terms of seats, though, QC125 predicts the CAQ will take a sizable 94, with the PLQ taking between 12 and 21. Québec solidaire trails just behind the PLQ — barring any surprises, the Liberals are poised to take the role of opposition come October.