Here Are Montreal's Chances Of Having A White Christmas, According To Environment Canada

It's less likely in Toronto and more likely in... Ottawa?

Staff Writer
Montrealers walk through a snowfall near Christmastime.

Montrealers walk through a snowfall near Christmastime.

With this year's first snowfall waiting until November, Montrealers may be curious (or even concerned) about whether our Christmas this year will be green or white. Thankfully, Environment Canada is here to help, with their rigorously calculated predictions based on years of wintry weather data. They've determined the chances of getting a white Christmas for many locations across Canada, including Montreal.

Environment Canada has even devised a category adorably called "Perfect Christmas," which they define as a Christmas Day with at least two centimetres of snow on the ground AND measurable snowfall sometime during the day.

The percentage chance of a white Christmas (i.e. a Christmas Day with at least two centimetres of snow on the ground) in Montreal, as determined by data gathered on Christmasses from 1955 to 2019, is 75%. That's pretty good, all things considered — there are many places with far worse chances, like Vancouver, which only has a nine percent chance of a white Christmas.

Montreal's perfect Christmas percentage, which tells us what fraction of past Christmasses have had both snow on the ground and snowfall, sits at 25 percent. The place with the highest percentage of perfect Christmasses among those EnviroCan tracks is Sault Ste. Marie, a city in Ontario boasting a whopping 69% perfect Christmasses since 1961.

If you're looking to go somewhere a little closer for that 10/10 Christmas snow experience, Quebec City is a safe bet, with a perfection percentage of 60% since 1955.

That may mean Quebec City has historically had more picturesque Christmasses than Montreal, but it doesn't mean they're better than us, I promise.

Willa Holt
Staff Writer
Willa Holt is a Staff Writer for MTL Blog focused on apartments for rent and is based in Montreal, Quebec.
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