If you thought your grocery bill was finally going to go down in 2026, you might want to brace yourself. The numbers coming out of this year's food price report aren't exactly comforting.
Along with the rising cost of living, Quebecers are going to have to deal with another notable increase in food costs next year, even though general inflation seems to be calming down. That's according to Canada's Food Price Report 2026 from Dalhousie University, released Thursday morning.
Researchers behind this nationwide study predict food prices across the country will increase between 4% and 6% in 2026. For an average family of four, that means the annual grocery bill will jump from $16,577 in 2025 to $17,572 in 2026. That's nearly $1,000 more just to feed your family.
And here's the kicker for Quebec: while the province saw below-average price increases in 2025, projections show it could end up above the national average in 2026.
The categories that'll really hurt
Some grocery items are going to hit your wallet harder than others. Here's what the report is forecasting for 2026:
Meat will see the biggest jump at 5-7%. Vegetables aren't far behind at 3-5%. Restaurant meals will cost 4-6% more. Dairy and eggs will go up 2-4%, same with bakery products. Meanwhile, fruit will only increase 1-3%, making it one of the more stable categories.
Chicken is becoming a luxury
If you've been swapping out beef for chicken over the past year to save money, you're going to be disappointed. The price of poultry is about to take flight.
According to the report, historically low production in 2025 partly explains the expected price increase for this white meat. Plus, mild fall temperatures meant wild birds stuck around Canada longer before migrating, leading to a sudden spike in avian flu cases among commercial flocks.
Domestic chicken production has missed its targets for nine consecutive periods, which is extremely rare. In October 2025 alone, 15 confirmed outbreaks hit operations across six provinces.
Why is everything still going up?
There are plenty of reasons explaining the nearly $1,000 increase in your grocery bill. First, there's the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which continue to add pressure on import and export costs. Canadian exports to the US dropped 7.5% in the second quarter of 2025, marking the biggest quarterly decline since the 2008 recession.
Extreme weather has also played a major role. Droughts and wildfires have heavily affected agricultural production. By June 2025, 66% of Canadian agricultural land was experiencing moderate to extreme drought. Over 8.3 million hectares burned from wildfire activity by September.
The weak Canadian dollar is making several products more expensive, and ongoing changes in the supply chain aren't helping either. The food manufacturing industry has been restructuring too, with major corporations like Kraft-Heinz and Dr. Pepper Kellogg downsizing throughout 2025.
Food prices are now 27% higher than they were just five years ago. One in four Canadian households is considered food insecure, and nearly 2.2 million people visited food banks monthly in 2025.
With all that in mind, 2026 isn't shaping up to be a year of relief for your food budget, especially in Quebec. Between the predicted increases, expensive proteins, and production imbalances, you'll probably rethink your grocery strategy more than once.
