Summer is technically four weeks away. You wouldn't know it from Quebec's latest weather forecast.
The Old Farmer's Almanac has dropped its long-range outlook for southern Quebec, and it's not exactly the warm-weather salvation the region has been waiting for. Cool temperatures, unsettled skies, and a stormy finish are all on the menu.
Worth keeping in mind: the Almanac isn't your weather app. It doesn't model the atmosphere a few days out and call it a forecast. Instead, it draws on historical weather cycles, solar activity, and long-term climate trends to get a broad read on what a given stretch of weeks is likely to feel like. It won't tell you whether to bring an umbrella on June 14th, but it's a reasonable way to take the temperature of a season before it arrives.
And the temperature, apparently, is going to be lower than most of us would like.
Here's what the Almanac is calling for in southern Quebec this June:
- June 1 to 3: Cool and damp to start, with showers and snow still lingering in far northern Quebec.
- June 4 to 7: Chilly and breezy, with dry skies in southern Quebec but gusty conditions further east.
- June 8 to 11: Unsettled and cool, with scattered rain continuing across the region.
- June 12 to 15: The first real bright spot of the month, with mild temperatures and fair skies returning to southern Quebec.
- June 16 to 19: Warm and breezy, with pleasant conditions across southern Quebec and light rain limited to the north.
- June 20 to 23: Cool and windy again, with scattered showers returning.
- June 24 to 27: Dry and pleasant, with fair skies settling in over Montreal for a few days.
- June 28 to 30: A stormy close, with strong winds and rain for coastal areas and a thunder risk in central Quebec.
Two stretches are worth flagging as actually promising: the window around June 12 to 15, and the dry spell from June 24 to 27. Everything else is fairly uninspiring.
That tracks with what MétéoMédia has been saying all spring. An incoming El Niño pattern has been pushing warmth toward Western Canada while leaving the east with cooler, more unsettled conditions. Meteorologist Nicolas Lessard previously noted that what MétéoMédia calls "felt summer" — the point when temperatures durably settle in around 23 to 25°C — normally arrives around mid-June in southern Quebec. This year, that arrival could come even later.
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